“The hedge-fund CIO who won big in his short bet against Carvana last year is now betting millions that the housing market will slow significantly” — calling for 15–20% declines in home prices ahead.
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Fifteen curated ideas a week. Each one with key catalysts, company notes and risk level — written from an institutional perspective but broken down in an easy-to-read format.
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- As quoted inBUSINESS INSIDER
On the record
“Losing her is like the Warriors losing Steph Curry.”
The call ran opposite Michael Burry’s bullish bet. Lululemon fell nearly 50% that year on slowing growth, competition and tariffs. That is the whole job: a clear, early, falsifiable view — in public, with a name attached to it.
“A top investment chief is betting this iconic industrial stock can jump 48% by 2026” — Bustamante’s single best idea for the year, written up by Phil Rosen.
On D.R. Horton’s rent-to-own pivot: “They have been focusing more on single-family rental development versus actual homes for sale, while investing over $1 billion in that arm the last three years.”
One reader found the letter the same way: “I found the report in 2022 when I was long Carvana and saw a video about it being a short. Sure enough, he was right.”
What lands Sunday morning
A research desk’s output,
compressed into one PDF.
15 Rotating Ideas
A curated list of long-only ideas for the week ahead in a clean PDF — the same screen-and-sort work a fund does, minus the fund.
Entry, Exit, Execution.
Every idea has price action commentary with key levels, targets updated weekly and execution notes so you can think less and act more.
Trade Alerts
Too busy to read it? No problem. Each month 2–4 trade alerts using deep-in-the-money calls are sent out with entry, stop and target.
Dan’s cliff notes
What he is personally watching into the week: flows, positioning, price action and the two or three things that actually matter.
Today: Bustamante Capital Management.
The seat this is written from
Not a normal Wall Street path.
That is rather the point.
It started at nine, selling fruit out of a backyard and reinvesting it into buying and selling golf clubs on eBay. In college it was class during the morning and working at Charles Schwab in the afternoon and evenings. Then the twenties on Wall Street: a futures desk, then equity research, then portfolio manager at a long/short hedge fund.
Four things survived all of it. They are the spine of every letter.
Have a process.
Short-term trader or long-term investor, it does not matter. Markets are made of uncertainty; a repeatable process keeps you spending your attention on the part you control.
Have a plan for every position.
Underwrite it and know where you are getting out before you are in. That is what makes the risk/reward — and therefore the size — an answer rather than a guess.
Know what you own, and why.
A turnaround and a short-term event trade are not the same instrument. Defining which one you hold sets both the size and the expectation.
Learn bet sizing.
There is a time to push the whole stack in, and it is rare. A portfolio of ideas beats a bet on one, because there is always something you could not have accounted for.
Yours in profits,
Daniel X. Bustamante
Income & swing alerts
Stock exposure without
the stock’s price tag.
Two to four ideas a month with a suggested entry, stop and target — built on deep-in-the-money calls. No shares to buy, no multi-leg strategy. Stock replacement, plus the time to be right.
- Nothing to watch. Long-dated, deep in the money. Put it on and go back to your life.
- Fixed cost. Instead of laying out $20K for shares, you get the exposure for a fraction.
- Capped risk. A defined maximum loss, which is mostly what lets people sleep.
- Idle cash, working. The money parked in your brokerage account finally does something.
The archive
Recent letters
Membership
No Leverage, No Worries. Issue 32
Big earnings ahead this week for names in this report, and the Mag 7 names report as well — which is a concern.
$META$RBLX$GNRC Lite3 New Ideas: $META, $RBLX, $GNRC
Plus updates to the ideas from last month inside.
FreeThe Stock Market Podcast (Call)
New episode is out.
Membership
CapEx Concerns & Rotation Issue 31
Earnings season begins. CPI, capital-expenditure risk and the rotation underneath it.
Membership
New Trade Alert · Income Portfolio
A new idea inside.
Lite
LongVol Report
Earnings season begins, CPI and insights for this week’s letter inside.
Readers
Nine people, unprompted,
on what they actually use.
I am a student of the FOPT lectures and subscribe to the report and both are incredible. The FOPT is so well done and in depth that it talked about concepts I never even thought to consider. I spent time as an analyst in my twenties at a hedge fund and we never used the ideas discussed in there — so this was an eye opener for me.
I found the report in 2022 when I was long Carvana and saw a video about it being a short. At first I was not sure, but sure enough he was right, and from there I was sold. It’s so well done that sometimes I wish they didn’t sell it — but I get it.
I’ve been a stock and commodity investor since the late 80s, when I used to get my charts mailed on the weekends — so that tells you how long I’ve been at this. This is one of the top 3 reports I have ever subscribed to over those years.
My background was in economics and some investing, really in Forex and stocks. I have read this report for about a year now and it is very thorough and filled with ideas to use. The best part for me is the weekly commentary — that’s where I get a feel for what to look at myself.
The LongVol Report is incredible. He is so straight-forward and the analysis is rarely wrong. My favorite part is the highlighted ideas, because it gives me confidence to pay attention to those over my own analysis, which I’m still working on.
I took Dan’s classes when he was with another company during Covid and he was one of the best teachers I have ever met — and I spent a lot of time and money at Online Trading Academy, so believe me. Three years in, it only gets better.
Been a long time reader and it has helped me make a good deal of money over the years. What I like most is the highlighted ideas each week — when I’m in a rush I can just read those, set some alerts, then manage it when I’m on the road.
I’ve been with you a long time and came back after these years because your takes were always unique. I have made more money with the report and the FOPT Lectures than anything I’ve done previously.
Just wanna say, the FOPT you put together is REALLY good. So much in there that I want to learn, and it’s right there. Looking back at the old stuff and the stuff now — WOW. It’s obvious how much you have grown.
Membership
Pick the seat you want.
Both paid tiers land Sunday, and both include the trade alerts. The difference is depth — Lite is the setups; Membership is the full research desk, Dan’s cliff notes and the rooms.
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LongVol Lite
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Includes a free 21-day trial
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- 2–4 trade alerts a month w/ deep-in-the-money calls
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- Market Flows Chat (yearly only)
LongVol Report Membership
For long-term investors who want the whole desk.
$297 /month
- Flagship PDF report — 15 stock ideas every week
- Trade alerts included — 2–4 a month (entry, stop, target)
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- Access to the community chat rooms
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- LongVol Lite included
Prices in USD. Cancel any time — the trial ends before it bills.
The next letter goes out Sunday.
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